Could Covid-19 in US get as bad as some European countries ?

The United States’ leading infectious disease expert, Dr. Anthony Fauci has warned that another surge of  covid-19 cases “superimposed on that surge that we’re already in” might be coming, mainly due to the Thanksgiving and Christmas holidays. Already, the US is setting grim new case records — the surge Fauci referred to — and given it takes an average of 5-6 days for an infected person to display symptoms, new cases due to Thanksgiving infections could soon begin appearing.

Fauci, in a dark suit and dark blue cloth mask, sits in front of a microphone — without his glasses. His hands are folded in front of his chin.
Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases 

Last Friday, the US reported an all-time high of 205,460 new Covid-19 cases a day, the first day ever that the US saw more than 200,000 cases, less than a month after it crossed the 100,000 daily case mark for the first time on November 4. Yesterday, the US reported nearly a quarter of a million new cases (248,686) and a record 3,528 deaths. However, the death rates reported yesterday in at least 10 countries, were higher than the US, when adjusted for their 331 million population.

Country (World position) Actual Deaths 16 DecAdjusted deaths to US pop
equivalent for each nation
USA 1st3,5283,528 12th
UK 7th 6122,975 13th
Germany 12th 7492,952 14th
Belgium 21st 1243,531 11th
Italy 8th 6803,724 10th
Austria 36th 1164,250 9th
Switzerland 31st 1134,306 8th
Latvia 99th 254,412 7th
Hungary 37th 1444,939 6th
Poland 14th 6055,292 5th
Lithuania 73rd 445,385 4th
Bosnia/Hertogevena 71st 545,461 3rd
Slovenia 72nd 396,206 2nd
Bulgaria 46th 1919,130 1st
Table of death rates for selected countries December 16th

So there we have it. What conclusions can we draw from this table ? Many European countries and Balkan states are in a far worse position than the USA, despite constant lockdowns and severe economic restrictions. Trump has repeatedly downplayed coronavirus and encouraged people to interact with one another as they did before the pandemic, and despite this, this snapshot in time shows that America is very similar or better than many European nations.

Another interesting statistic from the Vox article, US Covid-19 hospitalisations are still rising. As of last Saturday, more than 91,000 people were hospitalized with Covid-19 — the most ever — and hospitals in some parts of the country are at capacity. As a direct comparison, Wales with its population of 3.153 million had 2,143 covid-19 patients, the equivalent of 5 District General Hospitals. If Wales had the same population as the USA, that would be 225,000 people with Covid 19 in hospital, and the US hospital system would be unable to cope.

In summary, the pandemic is entering its most dangerous period to date, and the country’s current leadership, until January 20th 2021, does not appear to have any plans to do anything about it. If Europe is anything to go by one week before Christmas, then Dr Fauci may be right, and the Us may experience death rates from Covid-19 between 5,000 – 10,000 per day at the start of 2021 after the Christmas holidays.

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