The United States’ leading infectious disease expert, Dr. Anthony Fauci has warned that another surge of covid-19 cases “superimposed on that surge that we’re already in” might be coming, mainly due to the Thanksgiving and Christmas holidays. Already, the US is setting grim new case records — the surge Fauci referred to — and given it takes an average of 5-6 days for an infected person to display symptoms, new cases due to Thanksgiving infections could soon begin appearing.
Last Friday, the US reported an all-time high of 205,460 new Covid-19 cases a day, the first day ever that the US saw more than 200,000 cases, less than a month after it crossed the 100,000 daily case mark for the first time on November 4. Yesterday, the US reported nearly a quarter of a million new cases (248,686) and a record 3,528 deaths. However, the death rates reported yesterday in at least 10 countries, were higher than the US, when adjusted for their 331 million population.
|Country (World position)||Actual Deaths 16 Dec||Adjusted deaths to US pop |
equivalent for each nation
|USA 1st||3,528||3,528 12th|
|UK 7th||612||2,975 13th|
|Germany 12th||749||2,952 14th|
|Belgium 21st||124||3,531 11th|
|Italy 8th||680||3,724 10th|
|Austria 36th||116||4,250 9th|
|Switzerland 31st||113||4,306 8th|
|Latvia 99th||25||4,412 7th|
|Hungary 37th||144||4,939 6th|
|Poland 14th||605||5,292 5th|
|Lithuania 73rd||44||5,385 4th|
|Bosnia/Hertogevena 71st||54||5,461 3rd|
|Slovenia 72nd||39||6,206 2nd|
|Bulgaria 46th||191||9,130 1st|
So there we have it. What conclusions can we draw from this table ? Many European countries and Balkan states are in a far worse position than the USA, despite constant lockdowns and severe economic restrictions. Trump has repeatedly downplayed coronavirus and encouraged people to interact with one another as they did before the pandemic, and despite this, this snapshot in time shows that America is very similar or better than many European nations.
Another interesting statistic from the Vox article, US Covid-19 hospitalisations are still rising. As of last Saturday, more than 91,000 people were hospitalized with Covid-19 — the most ever — and hospitals in some parts of the country are at capacity. As a direct comparison, Wales with its population of 3.153 million had 2,143 covid-19 patients, the equivalent of 5 District General Hospitals. If Wales had the same population as the USA, that would be 225,000 people with Covid 19 in hospital, and the US hospital system would be unable to cope.
In summary, the pandemic is entering its most dangerous period to date, and the country’s current leadership, until January 20th 2021, does not appear to have any plans to do anything about it. If Europe is anything to go by one week before Christmas, then Dr Fauci may be right, and the Us may experience death rates from Covid-19 between 5,000 – 10,000 per day at the start of 2021 after the Christmas holidays.