As predicted by Swiss Policy Research months ago based on antibody data, covid-19 infections, hospitalizations and deaths are now increasing again in many European countries. . Overall, a 1918-like pandemic pattern with a mild spring wave and a much stronger autumn/winter wave now appears quite likely. On the plus side, covid death rates are now lower than in spring as medical strategies have improved and some of the worst mistakes are avoided.
Clicking on the 1918-like pandemic pattern produces this crude but simple graph showing the 3 waves of that pandemic. The scary bits are not the size of that “mild spring wave” …..that first small blip on the left, but the size of the following “much stronger autumn/winter wave” (400% greater than the first), followed by a third early spring 2021 wave (over 100% greater than the first wave). Click for full article. It is important to remember that the coronavirus death rate is between 0.1% – 0.5% depending on which study you look at.
No-one knows whether the 2020/21 coronavirus pandemic will follow the pattern of the 1918/19 pandemic, but it certainly looks like the UK government is very worried that it might be. However, it looks like someone on the SAGE committee or a senior government advisor has been reading the SPR article, or researching the 1918/19 Spanish flu pandemic.
And now a new term and concept has appeared in the last few days relating to controlling the pandemic, namely “the circuit breaker“. Members of Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) have suggested using the “circuit breaker” tactic to repeatedly quash waves of infections. The looming two-week shutdown could see restaurants and leisure facilities closed, while schools and offices stay open. I read somewhere today that one of the purposes of the circuit breaker lockdowns would be to allow the failing and shambolic “Track and Trace” to catch up with infected individuals and their contacts, and ensure self isolation……..although they should be doing so under the circuit breaker measures.
England may face on-off lockdowns for six months as the PM is set to announce the first two-week “circuit breaker” to tackle the ongoing pandemic, which could be as early as next Tuesday, as the country heads towards a second wave of Covid-19.
Another 2.3million people will be living under local lockdowns from Tuesday after curbs were announced for parts of Merseyside, Lancashire, West Yorkshire and the Midlands. That means nearly one in five of the population will be living under some form of lockdown, even before new nationwide restrictions are announced. Click full Sun article
Widespread growth of the virus has been recorded across the country, with cases doubling every seven to eight days. There were a further 4,422 confirmed UK cases on Saturday and 27 deaths. Friday was the first time the daily total of positive tests had exceeded 4,000 since 8 May. A further 350 cases were reported on Saturday in Scotland, the highest daily increase since May, 212 new cases in Wales, and 222 in Northern Ireland.
Mr Johnson only has direct power over restrictions in England. The devolved governments in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland can set their own rules. The first Ministers of Scotland and Wales have been calling for an emergency COBRA meeting to discuss these new proposals, as they have been seeing similar surges in cases (see above). Click BBC source
If we are to have this radical management of the pandemic over the winter period, it would seem obvious that the four Nations of the UK should follow the same policy, rather than following the current quite differing policies. No sign of a COBRA meeting yet. Should be more leaked information in the Sunday newspapers and media coverage.