Follow the money

Yesterday, I posted this at the top of my blog :

“Will Dominic Cummings still be in post on June 1st 2020 ? Current odds on Betfair are 2/9 Yes and 11/4 No. Not very generous odds either way, but the 11/4 is quite tempting. I may have a bet tomorrow. Click for current odds

At 9.30 this morning, Douglas Ross, a minister in the Scotland Office, said he couldn’t stand behind the government as it defended Mr Cummings. In a statement announcing his resignation, he said many of his constituents had missed the funerals of loved ones and were unable to visit sick relatives. And he indicated his decision was forced by Boris Johnson’s decision to defend Mr Cummings despite growing outcry from his constituents.

Guessed this would change the market, so checked out Betfair sportsbook odds soon after, and the odds were 1/4 Yes and still 11/4 No , so placed a bet of bet £20 @ 11/4 for Cummings to be gone by June 1st. The market was suspended about 10.15 am and after reopening, remained @ 4/9 Yes and 13/8 No for most of the day. Current odds at the time of writing are 2/5 Yes and 7/4 No.

A week in politics is a long time, particularly in these febrile times, so remain hopeful that he will go before the end of the month.

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