Continuing from yesterday’s post, I have calculated the probable numbers of people who have had covid-19 or have a background immunity to it, (based on the assumption of a mortality rate of covid19 is 0.2%) across a range of 10 countries with different coronavirus management strategies.
The 0.2% mortality rate comes from a number of studies worldwide summarised on the swiss propaganda web site – Click here for details. (para 1)
Table of Countries projected cases based on 0.2% mortality rate extrapolation
|Country||Reported cases @ 16 May||Deaths @ 16 May||Extrapolated cases (0.2% mortality)||Population||% pop infected|
A number of interesting points come out of this analysis :
Three European countries (UK, Spain and Italy) are inadvertently moving towards herd immunity despite hard lockdowns, with between a 25% – 30% infection rate
Sweden with a more laissez – faire policy without lockdown and a declared intention of achieving herd immunity has only achieved an 18% infection rate.
Countries that have suppressed virus transmission rates with very low death rates with policies of high testing and contact tracing, with or without lockdowns, have only between 0 – 5% of their populations infected. This leaves them open to future high infection transmission rates in future waves of covid-19.