Continuing from yesterday’s post, I have calculated the probable numbers of people who have had covid-19 or have a background immunity to it, (based on the assumption of a mortality rate of covid19 is 0.2%) across a range of 10 countries with different coronavirus management strategies.
The 0.2% mortality rate comes from a number of studies worldwide summarised on the swiss propaganda web site – Click here for details. (para 1)
Table of Countries projected cases based on 0.2% mortality rate extrapolation
| Country | Reported cases @ 16 May | Deaths @ 16 May | Extrapolated cases (0.2% mortality) | Population | % pop infected |
| UK | 240,166 | 34,466 | 17,233,000 | 67,842,898 | 25.4% |
| USA | 1,507,773 | 90,113 | 45,056,000 | 330,767,155 | 13.6% |
| Italy | 224,760 | 31,763 | 15,881,500 | 60,471,867 | 26.3% |
| Spain | 276,505 | 27,563 | 13,781,500 | 46,752,543 | 29.5% |
| Germany | 176,244 | 8,027 | 4,013,500 | 83,750,725 | 4.8% |
| Sweden | 29,677 | 3,674 | 1,837,000 | 10,091,534 | 18.2% |
| S Korea | 11,037 | 262 | 131,000 | 51,265,477 | 0.26% |
| Austria | 16,201 | 629 | 314,500 | 9,000,075 | 3.49% |
| S Africa | 14,355 | 262 | 131,000 | 59,215,816 | 0.22% |
| New Zealand | 1,498 | 21 | 10,500 | 4,817,403 | 0.22% |
A number of interesting points come out of this analysis :
Three European countries (UK, Spain and Italy) are inadvertently moving towards herd immunity despite hard lockdowns, with between a 25% – 30% infection rate
Sweden with a more laissez – faire policy without lockdown and a declared intention of achieving herd immunity has only achieved an 18% infection rate.
Countries that have suppressed virus transmission rates with very low death rates with policies of high testing and contact tracing, with or without lockdowns, have only between 0 – 5% of their populations infected. This leaves them open to future high infection transmission rates in future waves of covid-19.
