Extrapolating total cases by range of countries

Continuing from yesterday’s post, I have calculated the probable numbers of people who have had covid-19 or have a background immunity to it, (based on the assumption of a mortality rate of covid19 is 0.2%) across a range of 10 countries with different coronavirus management strategies.

The 0.2% mortality rate comes from a number of studies worldwide summarised on the swiss propaganda web site – Click here for details. (para 1)

Table of Countries projected cases based on 0.2% mortality rate extrapolation

Country Reported cases @ 16 May Deaths @ 16 May Extrapolated cases (0.2% mortality) Population % pop infected
UK 240,16634,46617,233,000 67,842,89825.4%
 Italy  224,76031,763 15,881,500  60,471,867 26.3%
 Spain  276,50527,563 13,781,500  46,752,543 29.5%
 Germany  176,244  8,027  4,013,500  83,750,725  4.8%
 Sweden  29,677  3,674  1,837,000  10,091,534 18.2%
 S Korea  11,037  262  131,000  51,265,477  0.26%
 Austria  16,201  629  314,500  9,000,075  3.49%
 S Africa  14,355  262  131,000 59,215,816 0.22%
 New Zealand  1,498  21  10,500 4,817,403  0.22%
Click here for data source

A number of interesting points come out of this analysis :

Three European countries (UK, Spain and Italy) are inadvertently moving towards herd immunity despite hard lockdowns, with between a 25% – 30% infection rate

Sweden with a more laissez – faire policy without lockdown and a declared intention of achieving herd immunity has only achieved an 18% infection rate.

Countries that have suppressed virus transmission rates with very low death rates with policies of high testing and contact tracing, with or without lockdowns, have only between 0 – 5% of their populations infected. This leaves them open to future high infection transmission rates in future waves of covid-19.

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