Amended statistics and Lockdown easing

Today’s news that the Chinese authorities have revised the death toll in Wuhan City from 2,579 to 3,869 (a rise of exactly 50%) has messed up my figures in extrapolating the numbers of cases of Covid-19, based on a 1.4% death rate. Ie it is no longer 1.4% and is presumably now higher.

The reasons are unclear, but the City’s task force on virus prevention said that this was due to late and inaccurate reporting, and the numbers of patients who had died at home. The Chinese foreign ministry said statistics have been reviewed and denies any cover-up.

China today reported a GDP contraction of 6.8% in the first quarter of 2020 after decades of continuous growth. As the whole of China was never in Lockdown,  GDP reductions in many countries can be expected to be far greater in the second quarter of 2020.

Some Countries are starting to consider how to ease their Lockdown measures including Denmark, New Zealand and parts of the USA.The debate in New Zealand about easing the Lockdown has been along the lines of the theme of this Blog, and I quote :

“Prolonged lockdown is likely to cause greater harm than the virus to the nation’s long-term health and well-being, social fabric, economy and education,” said Simon Thornley, a public health lecturer at the University of Auckland, in a statement on behalf of the group. He added that New Zealand’s health system had “spare capacity” to deal with Covid-19, unlike in more populous countries.

The link for the full article is : https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/17/debate-over-when-and-how-to-ease-new-zealands-lockdown-turns-personal?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

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